Before you can think about a betting strategy, you need to have a bankroll management plan. If you don’t have one, forget about it.
Then ask yourself questions such as:
- Is my goal to win one unit or more per month?
- How much time can I devote to sports betting each day?
- Do I want to bet on one prediction game or more than one game at a time?
– Do I want to aim for the highest possible total return (maximize my expected return) and discard any perfect systems that may require more than 30 minutes a day, or would I rather aim for a high average return (minimize risk), but accept a losing streak with a low win percentage?
– What is my risk tolerance?
– Can I afford a couple of losing months or do I need a strategy that guarantees a profit every month, no matter what happens?
– How much stress can you handle?
Having answered these questions, you now have a short list of sports betting strategies from which to choose. If you’re still feeling overwhelmed, choose a strategy at random or choose one that suits your needs and interests, either by intuition or the wisdom of the crowd.
Different sports betting strategies
Firstly, the most important thing about sports betting strategy is to understand that there is simply no one-size-fits-all strategy that works. To be a successful sports bettor, you have to find the right strategy for yourself and your style of play. What works for one person may not work for another.
Sports betting in Spain – elskodamasantiguo.com
Here are some popular sports betting strategies that are available in the online betting world. We have tried to make this list as comprehensive as possible and cover most of the things you can do when it comes to sports betting strategies.
The importance of football betting strategies
Value is very important and many people don’t give it enough attention when it comes to sports betting. If you want to be successful, you need to factor this into your decisions as much as possible. This is especially true in football, where a draw is always an option for both teams when it comes to betting lines. Even if you think one team has a 90% chance of winning, if they are playing against a team that has very little chance of winning (maybe 1%), then it makes sense to bet on the underdog (even though this may not be the case when it comes to betting lines).
Kelly criterion for football betting
In order to determine how much you should bet, you need to use what is known as the Kelly criterion. This formula allows you to determine exactly how much you should bet in order to maximise your expected profit no matter what game or sport you play. It may seem complicated, but it’s actually very easy to understand. Suppose you think that team A has a 60% chance of beating team B (team B is an outsider with 40%). This means that the implied probability of team A winning is 60%. The Kelly Criterion takes this information and calculates exactly how you should bet if you want to maximise your profits. For every $100 you bet, how many bets should you place? According to Kelly’s criterion, we can determine this by multiplying 0.6 and 100 and then dividing the result (which is 60) by 1+0.6, which is 2:
$50 is how much you have to bet on team A to maximise your profit. If you exceed or undervalue this amount, your expected profit will be lower than it might otherwise be.
Using Kelly’s criterion for betting lines
Kelly’s criterion works equally well with betting lines and winning odds (as we used in the example above). When you bet on a favourite, you need to find out what the implied probability of that team winning is, and then use that information to determine how much you should bet. If, for example, the team has an 80% probability of winning, then we can simply apply our formula:
If the probability of winning is 40%, it’s just as simple:
The formula can also be used for betting against favourites in case you only want to bet when the line is very low (or when there are other factors that make an upset possible). As before, we need to find out what the implied probability of them winning is, and then use that information to calculate the bet. For example, if their probability of winning is 30%:
Kelly’s criterion does not only work with odds, it is also useful when working with betting lines. If we take the previous example and swap it around, we can determine exactly how much we should bet on the underdog:
Using these calculations to your advantage will definitely help you make a lot of money over time, because you will always maximise your expected income, no matter what.